Unbound Stories: Elite Race Preview
- James Ion
- May 30
- 11 min read
Words James Ion - Photography provided by Life Time Grand Prix
It's finally here! Unbound is one day away, so it's time to make those predictions! Who do we think is going to win, and how do we see not only how the day unfolds but also the Grand Prix and Wild Card stories within the race! Who do you think is going to win?
Elite Men Favourites
The men’s 200-mile elite field at Unbound 2025 is arguably the strongest ever assembled, with a deep blend of Grand Prix stars, international gravel specialists, and big-name wild cards. Expect an all-star cast of America’s best off-road racers going bar-to-bar with decorated European pros venturing into gravel.
Here are our tips for top contenders and storylines:
Keegan Swenson (USA): The man to beat, pretty much always the man to beat! Swenson is the reigning LTGP series champion. A mountain biker by background, he’s adapted brilliantly to gravel racing, using smart fueling and blistering late-race power. In 2022, he agonizingly lost Unbound in a sprint; in 2023, he made no mistake, winning a seven-up sprint after 10 hours. Keegan’s recent form is red-hot. He won the Sea Otter Classic gravel race in April and is coming in leading the Grand Prix. His strategy is typically to surf in the lead group until the final hours and then attack or outsprint his rivals. On paper, Swenson’s mix of endurance, tactical sense, and finishing kick makes him the top favourite to repeat.
Tobias Kongstad (Denmark): Kongstad finished 3rd at last year's Unbound and has shown consistent form over the Flint Hills. He also comes in fresh off the back of winning the Traka 360 after an audacious breakaway with over 160km to go! He is clearly in form, and his team, PAS Norma, have made it no secret they want to win, setting out the goal to secure victory at the Traka and Unbound, one down, one to go!
Petr Vakoč (Czech Republic): Vakoč comes to Unbound on a mission, not only will he be seeking the win, but he also has to secure his wild card spot (more on that later). He is in fine form this year, placing 4th at Sea Otter and again 4th in the Traka 200. He comes into the race off the back of victory at The Gralloch in Scotland. With a place on the Grand Prix up for grabs, his motivation could push him all the way to first place.
Elite Women Favourites
The women’s Unbound 200 elite field is stacked with champions and rising stars, promising a thrilling battle of attrition and tactics. Many past winners of Unbound are back, and the level of competition has never been higher. Last year’s women’s race famously culminated in a nine-rider sprint after 10.5 hours, a testament to how deep the field has become. Here’s a look at our key contenders and their storylines:
Axelle Dubau-Prévot (France): Dubau-Prévot is new to the Grand Prix this year and showed at Sea Otter that she can mix it with the best, being active in the front group for most of the race. She has shown her skills riding difficult terrain by claiming 2nd at The Traka 360, and after disappointing Unbound in 2024, she will be aiming for a good result that could see her catapult not only to the win but up the Grand Prix standings as well!
Credit: Wil Matthews Sarah Sturm (USA): Sturm is the fan favourite, the laid-back American is easy to like, often taking time out to chat with fans, or taking part in fun photoshoots. But do not let that fool you into thinking she is going to be the same on the bike. She has had mixed results at Unbound and last year famously led out Geerike Schreurs, something that she does not regret but on reflection would not do again as she wants to put herself first. This year, she has opted out of the Grand Prix to pursue a self-defined calendar. This change could release some pressure and give her the chance to go for the win. There will be no lead-out this year, only sprints for glory!
Karolina Migoń (POL): Migoń is on fire! And we will say it now, she is the rider to beat! She comes into the race after winning the Traka 360 for the second time in a row, and only last week led a PAS Normal 1,2,3 at Gravel Locos. She has the drive, the talent and the support of her team to go all the way and has proven herself in all conditions, which might come in handy this weekend!
Life Time Grand Prix Stakes at Unbound
Unbound Gravel presented by Shimano isn’t just any race; it doubles as Round 2 of the Life Time Grand Prix (LTGP) series. This means the elite racers are not only chasing Unbound glory but also critical points toward the season-long Grand Prix standings. The LTGP is a six-race multi-surface series (mixing gravel and MTB events) with $380,000 on offer, including a $200k bonus pool split evenly among top-10 men and women. Unbound is the longest and arguably most prestigious stop on the circuit; a good or bad day here can make or break a rider’s Grand Prix campaign.
Series Standings: Coming into Unbound, the Grand Prix leaders are the usual off-road heavy hitters. On the men’s side, Keegan Swenson leads after winning the series opener (Sea Otter Classic). Swenson is the defending LTGP champion, so all eyes are on him to possibly extend his points lead. Chasing him in the standings are the likes of South African champ Matthew Beers (2nd overall after Sea Otter) and former WorldTour pro Alexey Vermeulen (3rd).
In the women’s Grand Prix, 2024 series winner Sofia Gomez Villafañe sits atop the standings after a dominant series win at Sea Otter, however, she finished second to none Series rider Hayley Batten. She’s trailed by newcomer Cecily Decker and South Africa’s Hayley Preen. However, Unbound’s massive points (30 points to win, 28 for 2nd, etc.) could reshuffle these rankings dramatically. Notably, a few big names scored poorly in the series opener, e.g. Lauren De Crescenzo was 8th at Sea Otter and Haley Smith even farther down, so they’ll be extra motivated to take maximum points in Emporia.
Adding intrigue, 2025 is the first year Unbound offers a prize purse of its own: $30,000 split evenly among the top 5 elite men and women. Previously, Unbound winners got a trophy (and bragging rights), but now there’s serious cash on the line too. This could incentivise aggressive racing from those outside the LTGP, since even non-series riders can grab a nice payday.
Wild Card Battle: Unbound 2025 is also a do-or-die audition for a handful of racers fighting for wild card entries into the remainder of the Grand Prix. Life Time reserved “6 Wild Card spots (3 men, 3 women) will be announced after Unbound Gravel”, inviting additional athletes into the series based on their performances in the first two events. (An unexpected twist: due to a late injury withdrawal of a pre-selected rider, Howard Grotts, the men’s wild cards are expanded to four, making 7 total spots (4 men, 3 women) up for grabs.) These athletes weren’t part of the original 22 invited Grand Prix riders, but they earned a chance by applying and then proving themselves at Sea Otter and Unbound.
Keep an eye on the Wild Card contenders in both fields, they have everything to gain this weekend. In the men’s class, former WorldTour rider Petr Vakoč is leading the wild card standings after an impressive ride at Sea Otter (he was the top wild card finisher there). Vakoč, a Czech ex-pro from Team Quick-Step, has serious form right now: he placed 4th at the brutal Traka 200 gravel race in Spain. Given his road pedigree and recent gravel success, Vakoč not only looks certain to snag a Grand Prix spot, but he’s also a legitimate threat for the overall Unbound podium. Behind him in the wild card hunt are two young Kiwis who moved to the U.S. to chase their gravel dreams: Matthew Wilson and Cameron “Cam” Jones. They sit 2nd and 3rd in the wildcard standings, respectively. Wilson and Jones performed strongly in Monterey (reportedly mixing it up in the lead pack at Sea Otter), but Unbound’s ultra-distance will be the real test of their endurance. Rounding out the men’s wildcard top four is Canadian MTB veteran Andrew L’Esperance. “Lespy” is an experienced XC racer, and while 200 miles of gravel is outside a typical XC comfort zone, he has the fitness to hang tough. Barring catastrophe, these four – Vakoč, Wilson, Jones, L’Esperance – look best positioned to claim the four men’s wild card slots for the rest of the Grand Prix. Still, they must finish Unbound strongly. Riders like Tobin Ortenblad (former CX pro) and Alex Howes (ex-WorldTour, now privateer) are slightly further back in the wildcard standings but could leapfrog if any of the leaders falter in Kansas.
On the women’s side, three wild-card berths are available, and currently it’s a tight race among four women. Anna Yamauchi leads the pack after Sea Otter, the 24-year-old Californian has been turning heads on the gravel scene and confirmed her talent with the top wild card placing in Race #1. Yamauchi has yet to tackle Unbound, but her aggressive style and youthful resilience could carry her through a strong 200-mile debut. Veteran pro Emily Newsom sits second in the wildcard standings. Newsom has the dual advantages of WorldTour road experience and Unbound knowledge, she podiumed 3rd in the 2022 Unbound 200. That long-range prowess makes Newsom arguably the best bet to secure one of these spots. In third is Hannah Shell, another American gravel racer who’s been consistently improving. Shell will need to leverage her familiarity with Midwest gravel (she’s from Colorado) to maintain her position. Nipping at their heels is Leah Van der Linden in fourth. Only the top three will “graduate” into the Grand Prix, so Van der Linden has extra incentive to lay it all on the line at Unbound. Given Newsom’s proven endurance and Yamauchi’s point lead, the final spot may come down to Shell vs. Van der Linden; every placement in the women’s field will count for these two.
All of these wild-card hopefuls will be racing with added pressure: not only the usual Unbound demands of pacing and nutrition, but also the mental weight of knowing a Life Time series slot hinges on their result. How they handle that pressure could be a story of its own.
Finally, a note on rules: To ensure fairness in the Grand Prix, the elite men and women will start in separate waves ahead of the masses. Drafting anyone outside your category is explicitly not allowed. This is a change designed to eliminate the controversial mixed-field dynamics of past gravel races (where, for example, top women sometimes benefited from riding in fast packs of men). In 2025, each elite race is truly standalone, a pure competition among peers. That means the women’s lead group will be all women, and tactical cooperation will only be among direct competitors. This could make the women’s race even more strategic, and it puts more onus on individual strength once splits occur. The men’s race, too, will have only the elite men at the sharp end, but with such a large, international field, that pack will already be more than enough company!
Wild Cards & the European Invasion
One of the most fascinating subplots in both the men’s and women’s races is the influx of big-name non-LTGP racers and wild cards looking to upset the status quo. Let’s put their presence in context. The Life Time Grand Prix regulars have their series points to worry about, but riders who aren’t in the series have a single mission: win Unbound. This dynamic could lead to some tactical chess.
For instance, how will Grand Prix leaders react if a trio of European breakaway artists attacks early? Imagine a scenario: Terpstra, De Gendt, and Paul Voss go up the road at mile 80, building a 5-minute lead. The LTGP contenders would face a dilemma: do they burn matches to chase them down, possibly towing rivals with them, or let the outsiders fry out front and focus only on beating each other for points? Now add the wrinkle that $6,000 goes to the winner of Unbound (plus priceless prestige). We suspect the Americans won’t simply let the Europeans steal the show. They remember 2022, when outsiders Slik and ten Dam took the top spots. Pride is on the line. So it’s likely that any dangerous move by the big-name outsiders will be marked by the likes of Swenson. In other words, expect a fast and aggressive race from the gun; no one’s going to gift a gap to someone like Van Avermaet or Tobias Kongstad. This could result in a brutally high pace in the first half, as the internationals test the waters and the Grand Prix riders cover moves.
The wild card competitors add another layer. Take Petr Vakoč – he is technically a “wild card” but in reality, a rider of his calibre might animate the front of the race. If Vakoč attacks on a climb, he could draw out other contenders and cause splits that indirectly help some Grand Prix riders and hurt others. Grand Prix leaders might think, “Petr’s not in the series yet, I don’t need to beat him for points,” but if he tows away a group containing, say, Alexey Vermeulen and drops Keegan, that’s suddenly a huge series shake-up. The savvy Grand Prix racers will know they cannot ignore the wild cards. They might try to use them: maybe a rider like Russell Finsterwald, who is behind in points, works with Vakoč or Wilson in a break to gain time on the series leaders. These temporary alliances could form based on mutual interests.
For the women, the presence of non-series stars like Carolin Schiff, Rosa Klöser, and Annika Langvad means the series contenders have extra threats to manage. However, since all these women start together and all are racing for the win, the dynamic is simpler: it’s full-on racing, and the best of the day wins. The series women will just have to accept that if a non-series rider like Schiff wins, they still score their series points based on finishing order. That said, the top series women won’t hesitate to follow the wheel of someone like Langvad or Schiff if they attack, because letting them go could also mean conceding the Unbound win.
One notable change likely to reduce outside interference: Life Time has separate start corrals and media motos, etc., for elite fields, which should prevent any age-group or amateur riders from pacing or aiding the pros. So the race should unfold purely among those who intend to be factors.
Finally, the European gravel invasion: riders like Van Avermaet, Terpstra, Mads Würtz Schmidt, Thomas Dekker, Ramon Sinkeldam, and Nathan Haas bring another level of professionalism and perhaps aggressiveness to the race. European pros are used to long races where positioning and team tactics are critical. We might see more peloton-like behaviour: echelons in crosswinds, feeding strategies, maybe even a pseudo-leadout” into the finish if a team has multiple riders (for example, some of the Belgian ex-pros could work together). This could disrupt the more individualistic, attritional nature Americans are used to. The U.S. gravel scene has been proud of its spirit of cooperation and shared struggle, but when a legendary hardman like Terpstra is sniffing a win, camaraderie goes out the window. In summary, expect the unexpected; this Unbound could play out more like a Spring Classic at times, with attacks and counters, rather than a steady attrition tempo. And that makes for an exceptionally exciting prospect!
Podium Predictions
It’s always a fool’s errand to predict Unbound winners – one mechanical or a bad batch of mud can foil any favourite. But based on form and history, here’s our best guess for who will stand on the podium come Saturday evening:
Elite Men:
Tobias Kongstad
Keegan Swenson
Petr Vakoč
Elite Women:
Karolina Migoń
Sarah Sturm
Axelle Dubau-Prévot
One thing is certain: with such deep fields, nothing is guaranteed. Unbound Gravel 2025 promises to be an all-day drama across the Flint Hills from the first nervy miles on fresh legs, through the heat of the day and the inevitable highs and lows, to the moment the winners blast down Emporia’s Commercial Street to the finish chute. Grab your dot watching gear or tune into the live stream (for the first time, Unbound will be streamed live: https://www.youtube.com/@LifeTimeGrandPrix).
This is one gravel showdown you won’t want to miss. By Saturday night, we’ll either be crowning expected heroes or celebrating a new unlikely legend of the gravel grinder. Emporia is ready, let’s crush some Kansas gravel!
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